Asymptotic Approximations in the Near-Integrated Model with a Non-Zero Initial Condition

This paper considers various asymptotic approximations in the near-integrated firstorder autoregressive model with a non-zero initial condition. We first extend the work of Knight and Satchell (1993), who considered the random walk case with a zero initial condition, to derive the expansion of the relevant joint moment generating function in this more general framework. We also consider, as alternative approximations, the stochastic expansion of Phillips (1987c) and the continuous time approximation of Perron (1991). We assess how these alternative methods provide or not an adequate approximation to the finite-sample distribution of the least-squares estimator in a first-order autoregressive model. The results show that, when the initial condition is non-zero, Perron's (1991) continuous time approximation performs very well while the others only offer improvements when the initial condition is zero.Ce papier considère plusieurs approximations asymptotiques dans le modèle autorégressif de premier ordre presque intégré avec une condition initiale non nulle. En premier, nous élargissons le travail de Knight et Satchell (1993) qui ont considéré le cas d'une marche aléatoire avec une condition initiale nulle. Ensuite, nous dérivons l'expansion de la fonction génératrice de moments conjointe qui est pertinente dans ce cadre théorique plus général. Nous considérons aussi, comme approximation alternative, l'expansion stochastique de Phillips (1987c) et l'approximation en temps continu de Perron (1991). Nous assurons comment ces méthodes alternatives donnent ou non une approximation adéquate pour la distribution en échantillon fini de l'estimateur de moindres carrés dans un modèle AR(1). Les résultats montrent que, quand la condition initiale est non nulle, l'approximation en temps continu de Perron (1991) fonctionne très bien, alors que les autres offrent seulement des améliorations lorsque la condition initiale est nulle

Sampling Interval and estimated Betas : Implications for the Presence of Transitory Components in Stock Prices

We provide a theoretical framework to explain the empirical finding that the estimated betas are sensitive to the sampling interval even when using continuously compounded returns. We suppose that stock prices have both permanent and transitory components. The permanent component is a standard geometric Brownian motion while the transitory component is a stationary Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The discrete time representation of the beta depends on the sampling interval and two components labelled \"permanent and transitory betas\". We show that if no transitory component is present in stock prices, then no sampling interval effect occurs. However, the presence of a transitory component implies that the beta is an increasing (decreasing) function of the sampling interval for more (less) risky assets. In our framework, assets are labelled risky if their \"permanent beta\" is greater than their \"transitory beta\" and vice versa for less risky assets. Simulations show that our theoretical results provide good approximations for the means and standard deviations of estimated betas in small samples. Our results can be perceived as indirect evidence for the presence of a transitory component in stock prices, as proposed by Fama and French (1988) and Poterba and Summers (1988).Nous donnons un cadre théorique pour expliquer le fait empirique que les bêta estimés sont sensibles à l'intervalle de l'échantillon même en utilisant des rendements composés sans interruption. La composante permanente est un mouvement brownien géométrique standard et la composante transitoire est un processus stationnaire Orstein- Uhlenbeck. La représentation en temps discret des bêta dépend de l'intervalle de l'échantillon et de deux composantes appelées \"bêta permanent et transitoire\". Nous montrons que, si la composante transitoire n'est pas présente dans les prix des actifs, il n'existe pas d'effet d'intervalle de l'échantillon. Cependant, la présence d'une composante transitoire implique que le bêta est une fonction croissante (décroissante) de l'intervalle de l'échantillon pour actifs plus (moins) risqués. Dans notre cadre théorique, les actifs sont risqués si ses \"bêta permanents\" sont plus grands que ses \"bêta transitoires\" et vice versa pour des actifs moins risqués. Les simulations montrent que nos résultats théoriques donnent une bonne approximation pour les moyennes et écart-types des bêta estimés en petits échantillons. Nos résultats peuvent être perçus comme une évidence indirecte de la présence d'une composante transitoire dans les prix des actifs, comme proposé par Fama et French (1988) et Poterba et Summers (1988)

L’image d’Auguste sous le règne de ses successeurs

Résumé: Auguste s’etait occupé lui-meme de forger l’image qu’il entendait laisser à la posterite en laissant des instructions sur le déroulement de ses funérailles et le gouvernement de l’empire, mais aussi en rédigeant ses Res gestae. Jusqu’au règne de Neron, les empereurs Julio-Claudiens revendiquent leur parenté avec le fondateur du Principat, car le sang d’Auguste légitime leur pouvoir. À partir de l’avènement de Vespasien, c’est davantage par leur comportement que les princes peuvent se réclamer d’Auguste, surtout quand ils prétendent fonder une dynastie. Dans le regime tétrarchique, le surnom Auguste devient l’équivalent d’un grade militaire exprimant la préséance des empereurs les plus anciens sur ceux qu’ils choisissent comme successeurs en leur conférant le surnom de César. Si la référence augustéenne s’estompe sous certains règnes, sous celui de Trajan ou de Septime Sévère, elle subsiste, y compris après la conversion de Constantin au christianisme, révélant ainsi sa très grande plasticité. Mots-clés: Empire romain, ville de Rome, culte impérial, Tétrarchie, Constantin, Théodose Ier, Virgile, Tacite, Pline le Jeune.Abstract: Augustus had taken care to forge the image by which he wanted posterity to remember him, not only in the form of his instructions for his funeral and for the government of the empire but also in his Res gestae. Until the reign of Nero, the Julio- Claudian emperors claimed their kinship to Augustus, because bearing the blood of the founder of the Principality legitimized their power. Starting from the Vespasian’s rise to power, princes claimed their kinship to Augustus was behavioural, especially when they set out to found a dynasty. Under the tetrarchical regime, the nickname Augustus became the equivalent of a military rank, expressing the precedence of the oldest emperors over those whom they chose as successors and who they nicknamed Caesar. Although the Augustus reference fades under certain reigns, it subsisted under Trajan or Septimius Severus, even after the conversion of Constantine to Christianity, thus revealing its very great flexibility.Key words: Roman Empire, city of Rome, imperial cult, Tetrarchy, Constantine, Theodosius, Virgil, Tacitus, Pliny the Younger

Toward a data assimilation system for NEMO

International audienceIn this note, we discuss the project that has been conceived and the first achievement steps that have been carried out to set up a data assimila-­ tion system associated to NEMO. Of specific interest here are applications to operational oceanography. This data assimilation system is sche-­ matically made of three subcomponents: Interface Components, Built-in Components and External Components. Several elements of this NEMO data assimilation system have already been developed by various groups in France and in Europe and several of them could be introduced in the system (the linear Tangent and Adjoint Model, TAM, is one of the most important of them as far as variational assimilation is concerned), some others will require specific developments. Finally, we introduce the SEABASS reference configuration that is proposed to be the NEMO data as-­ similation demonstrator and the experimentation and training platform for data assimilation activities with NEMO. These various thoughts take advantage of the advances and discussions that have been carried out by the NEMOASSIM working group

Global observations of fine-scale ocean surface topography with the surface water and ocean topography (SWOT) mission

© The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in [citation], doi:[doi]. Morrow, R., Fu, L., Ardhuin, F., Benkiran, M., Chapron, B., Cosme, E., d'Ovidio, F., Farrar, J. T., Gille, S. T., Lapeyre, G., Le Traon, P., Pascual, A., Ponte, A., Qiu, B., Rascle, N., Ubelmann, C., Wang, J., & Zaron, E. D. Global observations of fine-scale ocean surface topography with the surface water and ocean topography (SWOT) mission. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6(232),(2019), doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00232.The future international Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) Mission, planned for launch in 2021, will make high-resolution 2D observations of sea-surface height using SAR radar interferometric techniques. SWOT will map the global and coastal oceans up to 77.6∘ latitude every 21 days over a swath of 120 km (20 km nadir gap). Today’s 2D mapped altimeter data can resolve ocean scales of 150 km wavelength whereas the SWOT measurement will extend our 2D observations down to 15–30 km, depending on sea state. SWOT will offer new opportunities to observe the oceanic dynamic processes at scales that are important in the generation and dissipation of kinetic energy in the ocean, and that facilitate the exchange of energy between the ocean interior and the upper layer. The active vertical exchanges linked to these scales have impacts on the local and global budgets of heat and carbon, and on nutrients for biogeochemical cycles. This review paper highlights the issues being addressed by the SWOT science community to understand SWOT’s very precise sea surface height (SSH)/surface pressure observations, and it explores how SWOT data will be combined with other satellite and in situ data and models to better understand the upper ocean 4D circulation (x, y, z, t) over the next decade. SWOT will provide unprecedented 2D ocean SSH observations down to 15–30 km in wavelength, which encompasses the scales of “balanced” geostrophic eddy motions, high-frequency internal tides and internal waves. This presents both a challenge in reconstructing the 4D upper ocean circulation, or in the assimilation of SSH in models, but also an opportunity to have global observations of the 2D structure of these phenomena, and to learn more about their interactions. At these small scales, ocean dynamics evolve rapidly, and combining SWOT 2D SSH data with other satellite or in situ data with different space-time coverage is also a challenge. SWOT’s new technology will be a forerunner for the future altimetric observing system, and so advancing on these issues today will pave the way for our future.The authors were mostly funded through the NASA Physical Oceanography Program and the CNES/TOSCA programs for the SWOT and OSTST Science teams. AnP acknowledges support from the Spanish Research Agency and the European Regional Development Fund (Award No. CTM2016-78607-P). AuP acknowledges support from the ANR EQUINOx (ANR-17-CE01-0006-01)

Global Observations of Fine-Scale Ocean Surface Topography With the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) Mission

The future international Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) Mission, planned for launch in 2021, will make high-resolution 2D observations of sea-surface height using SAR radar interferometric techniques. SWOT will map the global and coastal oceans up to 77.6 latitude every 21 days over a swath of 120 km (20 km nadir gap). Today’s 2D mapped altimeter data can resolve ocean scales of 150 km wavelength whereas the SWOT measurement will extend our 2D observations down to 15–30 km, depending on sea state. SWOT will offer new opportunities to observe the oceanic dynamic processes at scales that are important in the generation and dissipation of kinetic energy in the ocean, and that facilitate the exchange of energy between the ocean interior and the upper layer. The active vertical exchanges linked to these scales have impacts on the local and global budgets of heat and carbon, and on nutrients for biogeochemical cycles. This review paper highlights the issues being addressed by the SWOT science community to understand SWOT’s very precise sea surface height (SSH)/surface pressure observations, and it explores how SWOT data will be combined with other satellite and in situ data and models to better understand the upper ocean 4D circulation (x, y, z, t) over the next decade. SWOT will provide unprecedented 2D ocean SSH observations down to 15–30 km in wavelength, which encompasses the scales of “balanced” geostrophic eddy motions, high-frequency internal tides and internal waves. Frontiers in Marine Science | www.frontiersin.org 1 May 2019 | Volume 6 | Article 232 Morrow et al. SWOT Fine-Scale Global Ocean Topography This presents both a challenge in reconstructing the 4D upper ocean circulation, or in the assimilation of SSH in models, but also an opportunity to have global observations of the 2D structure of these phenomena, and to learn more about their interactions. At these small scales, ocean dynamics evolve rapidly, and combining SWOT 2D SSH data with other satellite or in situ data with different space-time coverage is also a challenge. SWOT’s new technology will be a forerunner for the future altimetric observing system, and so advancing on these issues today will pave the way for our future

Successful Leptogenesis in SO(10) Unification with a Left-Right Symmetric Seesaw Mechanism

We study thermal leptogenesis in a broad class of supersymmetric SO(10) models with a left-right symmetric seesaw mechanism, taking into account flavour effects and the contribution of the next-to-lightest right-handed neutrino supermultiplet. Assuming M_D = M_u and a normal hierarchy of light neutrino masses, we show that four out of the eight right-handed neutrino mass spectra reconstructed from low-energy neutrino data can lead to successful leptogenesis with a reheating temperature in the (10^9 - 10^10) GeV range. In the remaining four solutions, leptogenesis is dominated by N_2 decays, as in the type I seesaw case. We find that some of these spectra can generate the observed baryon asymmetry for reheating temperatures above 10^10 GeV, in contrast to the type I case. Together with flavour effects, an accurate description of charged fermion masses turns out to be a crucial ingredient in the analysis.Comment: 32 pages, 23 figures. v2: 2 comments [below Eq. (53) and at the end of the conclusions] and 1 reference added, typos corrected. Version to be published in Nucl. Phys.

Time course, factors related to, and prognostic impact of venoarterial extracorporeal membrane flow in cardiogenic shock

Venoarterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) is currently one of the most used devices in refractory cardiogenic shock. However, there is a lack of evidence on how to set the 'optimal' flow. We aimed to describe the evolution of VA-ECMO flows in a cardiogenic shock population and determine the risk factors of 'high-ECMO flow'. A 7 year database of patients supported with VA-ECMO was used. Based on the median flow during the first 48 h of the VA-ECMO run, patients were classified as 'high-flow' or 'low-flow', respectively, when median ECMO flow was ≥3.6 or <3.6 L/min. Outcomes included rates of ventilator-associated pneumonia, ECMO-related complications, days on ECMO, days on mechanical ventilation, intensive care unit and hospitalization lengths of stay, and in-hospital and 60 day mortality. Risk factors of high-ECMO flow were assessed using univariate and multivariate cox regression. The study population included 209 patients on VA-ECMO, median age was 51 (40-59) years, and 78% were males. The most frequent aetiology leading to cardiogenic shock was end-stage dilated cardiomyopathy (57%), followed by acute myocardial infarction (23%) and fulminant myocarditis (17%). Among the 209 patients, 105 (50%) were classified as 'high-flow'. This group had a higher rate of ischaemic aetiology (16% vs. 30%, P = 0.023) and was sicker at admission, in terms of worse Simplified Acute Physiology Score II score [40 (26-58) vs. 56 (42-74), P < 0.001], higher lactate [3.6 (2.2-5.8) mmol/L vs. 5.2 (3-9.7) mmol/L, P < 0.001], and higher aspartate aminotransferase [97 (41-375) U/L vs. 309 (85-939) U/L, P < 0.001], among others. The 'low-flow' group had less ventilator-associated pneumonia (40% vs. 59%, P = 0.007) and less days on mechanical ventilation [4 (1.5-7.5) vs. 6 (3-12) days, P = 0.009]. No differences were found in lengths of stay or survival according to the ECMO flow. The multivariate analysis showed that risk factors independently associated with 'high-flow' were mechanical ventilation at cannulation [odds ratio (OR) 3.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.1-7.1] and pre-ECMO lactate (OR 1.1, 95% CI 1.0-1.2). In patients with refractory cardiogenic shock supported with VA-ECMO, sicker patients had higher support since early phases, presenting thereafter higher rates of ventilator-associated pneumonia but similar survival compared with patients with lower flows

LC‐IMPACT: A regionalized life cycle damage assessment method

Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) is a lively field of research, and data and models are continuously improved in terms of impact pathways covered, reliability, and spatial detail. However, many of these advancements are scattered throughout the scientific literature, making it difficult for practitioners to apply the new models. Here, we present the LC‐IMPACT method that provides characterization factors at the damage level for 11 impact categories related to three areas of protection (human health, ecosystem quality, natural resources). Human health damage is quantified as disability adjusted life years, damage to ecosystem quality as global species extinction equivalents (based on potentially disappeared fraction of species), and damage to mineral resources as kilogram of extra ore extracted. Seven of the impact categories include spatial differentiation at various levels of spatial scale. The influence of value choices related to the time horizon and the level of scientific evidence of the impacts considered is quantified with four distinct sets of characterization factors. We demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method with an illustrative life cycle assessment example of different fuel options in Europe (petrol or biofuel). Differences between generic and regionalized impacts vary up to two orders of magnitude for some of the selected impact categories, highlighting the importance of spatial detail in LCIA. This article met the requirements for a gold – gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Measurement and Interpretation of Fermion-Pair Production at LEP energies above the Z Resonance

This paper presents DELPHI measurements and interpretations of cross-sections, forward-backward asymmetries, and angular distributions, for the e+e- -> ffbar process for centre-of-mass energies above the Z resonance, from sqrt(s) ~ 130 - 207 GeV at the LEP collider. The measurements are consistent with the predictions of the Standard Model and are used to study a variety of models including the S-Matrix ansatz for e+e- -> ffbar scattering and several models which include physics beyond the Standard Model: the exchange of Z' bosons, contact interactions between fermions, the exchange of gravitons in large extra dimensions and the exchange of sneutrino in R-parity violating supersymmetry.Comment: 79 pages, 16 figures, Accepted by Eur. Phys. J.